The Big Economic Factors Behind the Boise Real Estate Market

By Gavin J. King

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter as businesses drew down inventories at a much slower pace and boosted investment, a government report showed on Friday. Based on this good news, the Boise real estate market will be buoyed by the gains in economy.

It was estimated that Gross Domestic Product would increase at a clip of 5.7%, instead it grew at a rate of 5.9% according to the Commerce Department, based on fourth quarter financial numbers. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. In the third quarter alone the economy increased by another 2.2%. If we go back to the 2003 number the Boise real estate market would be on solid footing.

In the winter period the GDP posted fore-casted growth of 5.7%, which indicates goods and services production totals, according to Reuters. While the economy rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009 from the worst downturn since the 1930s, data so far suggests the rapid rate of acceleration slowed somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. Considering the housing slump and the low consumer confidence reports, businesses continued to reduce inventories to purchase needed software and equipment which all added up to a boost in fourth quarter numbers. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.

Demand remains low as indicated by the reduction in actual growth of 1.9% from the projected growth of 2.2%, which reduced inventories and brought some balance back. Business inventories fell only $16.9 billion in fourth quarter instead of $33.5 billion estimated last month. Throughout the latter portion of the summer, inventory sales plummeted to $139 billion. In that same quarter, the changes in inventory stimulated a 3.88% increase in GDP by themselves. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4%, the biggest decline since 1946, the department said. Toward the end of 2009, consumer spending had to be reduced from the projected 2% to 1.7% in consumer spending. That was below the 2.8% rate in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” auto purchase program. Previously reliable consumer spending levels, usually adding about 70% of GDP, was much lower than normal, adding only 1.23% to the nations GDP. As the national economy contracted, the Boise real estate market contracted right along with it.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. With business investment being much higher than the projected 2.9%, at 6.5% actually, improvement is on the way. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. Spending on new home construction grew at a slower 5% rate in the fourth quarter, instead of 5.7% estimated last month. With growth as high as 18.9%, the third quarter was a busy one. Contributing a .3% increase in GDP, imports and exports were significantly stronger in the fourth quarter than previously anticipated. With GDP factoring in to nearly every facet of business, Boise real estate is not independent.

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