2009 China’s auto market, “Paul 10″ war

By Zou himfr

“The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning” suggested in 2009 to China’s automobile output and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year mean development rate of 10 per hundred, it is essential to accomplish this aim is not very easy to accomplish in 2009 is 10% development , there still live several variables. In 2008, the nationwide automobile output and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, contrasted to the past, expanding output and sales groundwork, it is essential to accomplish 10% for three successive years of high development, the dispute is not small.

Growth turn is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?

Ministry of knowledge development and issued written knowledge present that in March, the National Automobile goods produced 1,095,400, 35.59% expansion in flexible chain of bonds (in February than in March), an advance of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 out of 100 expansion, an advance of 5.01%.

Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world’s greatest automobile client market; Second, a solitary month to revisit to one million steps; Third, an advance of the past six months the the utmost point.

However, we should also see there are many problems: First, sales growth exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, “the world” is only temporary, full-year 2009 may be difficult to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an increase of down too, the current growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is difficult to say now; Fourth, rapid growth in March, the root causes of policy driven, consumption tax, purchase tax cut, and the fuel tax reform, a series of policies such as automobile countryside played a role in propping up the market; Fifth, differences in consumption structure and obviously, in March sales of 772,400 passenger cars, up 10.26 percent, but sales of commercial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the increase in automobile production and sales companies half of the profits are negative growth, that there is still the issue of cost control, financial crisis, the impact on the real economy is still deepening.

1-3 months in 2009, automobile goods produced and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an advance of only 1.91% and 3.88%, lessened from the prevailing inventory, and some types marketed out of the market circumstances, 2009 years to realise the objective of 10% is in all likelihood to realise, but the insist is not tiny and can only be carefully optimistic.

In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales declined year-on-year advance of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which motor vehicle sales declined 20 and 16 percentage points descent in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales expansion of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, consequently, if the warmer automobile market is the key.

Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?

As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the “small displacement”, the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.

“The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning” gives that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and under 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of commuter vehicle pay for duty levied; At the matching time, the next three years, ” displacement of 1.5 liters of the following commuter market share atop 40%, of which a tiny displacement under 1.0 liters motor vehicle market share atop 15% “; motor vehicle for the surrounding territories is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.

So, what is “small displacement” national car is not clearly defined, the industry did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a loss for some enterprises, investment in R & D indecisive.

One is 1.0 liters and underneath is the genuine form of little displacement vehicles, if so, this part of the market share forms in detail very little, not very warm but furthermore the future of preferential principles to farther can not only cover this part of model.

The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 per hundred, this development was mostly due to the high utilisation levy, and vehicle buy levy decrease principle support to country localities, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is founded on micro-off founded business, is a vehicle to the rural areas the most direct beneficiaries of the principle, thus, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not signify that a little displacement of the “golden period” on the up.

1-3 months, sales of cars out the top ten brands are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be seen, 1.3 or the following few models actually.

At present, the auto policy support to rural areas are mainly goods and micro-light passenger cars out; China’s auto market is the “golden output” is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the concept of the impact of consumption, 1.3 liters emissions and sell the following car models have yet to be upgraded; the impact of the price itself is still greater than the impact of oil prices. The long term, small-displacement car to the countryside and the pulling effect of these two areas may not have expected less than ideal.

The difficulty is that the present boost mostly by little displacement with the vehicle propelled to the rural areas, and this is where the worry.

Decline in export profits decline

In 2008, the nationwide automobile trade items 684,900, accounting for the household automobile output 7.36 per hundred, an boost of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, nationwide automobile trade items 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.

This means that trade items development in down turn in 2008, founded on the year 2009, trade items are expected to fall the more serious.

On the one hand, China’s auto trade overseas chiefly condensed concurrently in the “Asia” territory, the location stayed at than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in actual by the exchange rate is subject to the consequence of fiscal critical purpose, the worldwide motor vehicle market shrinking speedily, trade overseas descent exacerbated by the prevailing heading down movement continues.

In augmentation, though China’s auto yield inexpensive, but the worth of word-of-mouth and brand label photograph still wants to be enhanced, and this is a long-term can be effective. To summation up, the circumstances was very sombre automobile exports.

According to China’s Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the principle enterprise wages of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 out of 100 descent, the yield amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 out of 100 decline.

2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile commerce (group) on the general down turn in earnings, while the much quicker down turn in 2009. Decline in earnings for numerous reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is mostly due to increasing charges, proceeded to down turn in 2009 that cost command in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, illustrate the consequences of market farther intensified, businesses may not desire to cost the market unchanging force to smaller charges, but gaze at the long-term tendency will continue; the most basic cause is the restricted dimensions of enterprise, productivity is not high, thin output is not accomplished and the grade of precision administration is not high.

Policy to support the face desires to be amplified

2009, a optimistic element for China’s auto market more than the opposing elements, the complete time spans of the radiant site in the world will carry on to be, but is presently looking at many tests, if the next three years, “Paul 10″ the need for guideline support was farther expanded.

2009, goods produced competence and organisation of even the utmost stages of Toyota’s yield is looked frontwards to to have extensively worse, we can observe how serious the circumstances, in the household enterprises are looking at “the expansion of trouble” and the dual demands of external challenges.

Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own brand is “the purchase of domestic products in a” replica.

First, the vehicle should be farther amplified to country localities, concern could be granted a farther 50 million to support the utilisation of little displacement vehicles, despite of their own emblems and junction project emblems, so as to bypass conflicts.

Second, the acquisition of levy could be farther decreased underneath 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be advised tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be advised to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be advised down to 5 %. Will be less levy income, but the automotive buyer and other consumer-driven, conspicuously to encourage the function of household demand.

Third, the abolition of journey levy to clean up a farther ascribe of lesser streets to avert disguised charges.

Fourth, the thoroughfare to recoup the advance major and interest of advances after the nation, to finish the charges.

Fifth, to speed up the domestic market into line with international oil prices, and to change the current domestic oil price rise in international oil prices rose rapidly, the domestic oil prices in international oil prices gradually dropped down the status quo of the blame.

Sixth, to farther intensify in the new power, new technologies in support of efforts to boost the autonomy of the personal vehicle R & D support.

Seventh, automobile trade items expanded support, the befitting vehicle to lift the trade items levy refund rate, the establishment of a exceptional inducement finance to enhance trade items services platform.

Eighth, the norms and the endorsement of drive vehicle fiscal development, and advantageous relaxation rate motor vehicle advances and down compensation, at the matching time the stringent organisation of private loan records.

IX, regulate second-hand vehicle market, to support new-generation vehicle utilisation, purchase utilised vehicles to elaborate the principle to support the new exterior can be expanded to 20 million vehicles in the locality, but not restricted to redemption of lightweight items, for example micro-off.

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